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Shifting range limits are predicted for many species as the climate warms. However, the rapid pace of climate change will challenge the natural dispersal capacity of long-lived, sessile organisms such as forest trees. Adaptive responses of populations will, therefore, depend on levels of genetic variation and plasticity for climate-responsive traits, which likely vary across the range due to expansion history and current patterns of selection. Here, we study levels of genetic and plastic variation for phenology and growth traits in populations of red spruce ( Picea rubens ), from the range core to the highly fragmented trailing edge. We measured more than 5000 offspring sampled from three genetically distinct regions (core, margin and edge) grown in three common gardens replicated along a latitudinal gradient. Genetic variation in phenology and growth showed low to moderate heritability and differentiation among regions, suggesting some potential to respond to selection. Phenology traits were highly plastic, but this plasticity was generally neutral or maladaptive in the effect on growth, revealing a potential liability under warmer climates. These results suggest future climate adaptation will depend on the regional availability of genetic variation in red spruce and provide a resource for the design and management of assisted gene flow. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’. 

Understanding the factors influencing the current distribution of genetic diversity across a species range is one of the main questions of evolutionary biology, especially given the increasing threat to biodiversity posed by climate change. Historical demographic processes such as population expansion or bottlenecks and decline are known to exert a predominant influence on past and current levels of genetic diversity, and revealing this demo‐genetic history can have immediate conservation implications. We used a whole‐exome capture sequencing approach to analyze polymorphism across the gene space of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.), an endemic and emblematic tree species of eastern North America high‐elevation forests that are facing the combined threat of global warming and increasing human activities. We sampled a total of 340 individuals, including populations from the current core of the range in northeastern USA and southeastern Canada and from the southern portions of its range along the Appalachian Mountains, where populations occur as highly fragmented mountaintop “sky islands.” Exome capture baits were designed from the closely relative white spruce (P. glauca Voss) transcriptome, and sequencing successfully captured most regions on or near our target genes, resulting in the generation of a new and expansive genomic resource for studying standing genetic variation in red spruce applicable to its conservation. Our results, based on over 2 million exome‐derived variants, indicate that red spruce is structured into three distinct ancestry groups that occupy different geographic regions of its highly fragmented range. Moreover, these groups show small Ne , with a temporal history of sustained population decline that has been ongoing for thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) of years. These results demonstrate the broad potential of genomic studies for revealing details of the demographic history that can inform management and conservation efforts of nonmodel species with active restoration programs, such as red spruce.